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Credibility for Severity Revisited

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  • Vincent Goulet
  • Antoni Forgues
  • Jiatao Lu

Abstract

It is basic actuarial knowledge that the pure premium of an insurance contract can be written as the product of the expected claim number and the expected claim amount. Actuaries use credibility theory to incorporate the contract’s individual experience into this calculation in a statistically optimal way. For many years, however, the use of credibility was limited to the frequency component. Starting with the paper by Hewitt (1971), there have been various suggestions as to how credibility theory also can be applied to the severity component of the pure premium. The latest such suggestion, Frees (2003), revived the interest in the problem.In this paper, we review four different formulas incorporating frequency and severity into credibility calculations. We then compare by simulation which one is most accurate at predicting a contract’s next-year outcome. It is found that the classical formula of Bühlmann (1967) is as good as the other ones in many cases. Alternatives, however, may offer easier analysis of the separate effects of frequency and severity on the premium.We also show that all the formulas reviewed in this paper stem from the same minimization problem, and we present a general, integrated, solution. At the same time, we complete Gerber (1972) by providing a proof to the main result of this paper and by stating required additional assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Goulet & Antoni Forgues & Jiatao Lu, 2006. "Credibility for Severity Revisited," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 49-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:10:y:2006:i:1:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2006.10596239
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Sawicka, 2013. "Model stochastycznej zależności liczby szkód i wartości pojedynczej szkody," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 31, pages 157-183.
    2. Oh, Rosy & Lee, Youngju & Zhu, Dan & Ahn, Jae Youn, 2021. "Predictive risk analysis using a collective risk model: Choosing between past frequency and aggregate severity information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 127-139.

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