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Predicting adoption of autonomous vehicles with a focus on levels of autonomy: evidence from a discrete choice experiment in South Korea

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Listed:
  • Insong Hwang
  • Yong Gu Ji

Abstract

We aimed to examine consumer preferences across distinct levels of autonomous driving, conducting a discrete choice experiment involving 800 Korean consumers with four base alternatives: (1) level 3 privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs) (L3 PAVs), (2) level 4 privately owned AVs (L4 PAVs), (3) level 5 privately owned AVs (L5 PAVs), and (4) shared AVs (SAVs). Vehicle characteristics that may trade off with different levels of autonomous driving were considered as attributes. The mixed logit model revealed that consumers preferred L4 PAVs the most, followed by L3 PAVs. SAVs were less preferred than PAVs, while the difference in preference for SAVs and L5 PAVs was not significant. We simulated choice probabilities in nine scenarios, revealing that the choice probability for L5 PAVs remained consistently below 20%. These findings indicate that governments and companies must exercise more caution in their investments in the development of L5 autonomous driving technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Insong Hwang & Yong Gu Ji, 2026. "Predicting adoption of autonomous vehicles with a focus on levels of autonomy: evidence from a discrete choice experiment in South Korea," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 641-660, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:49:y:2026:i:4:p:641-660
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2025.2462961
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