Empowering super-stars or rising-stars? Dynamics of the high-speed rail network planning in China

The development of high-speed rail (HSR) systems as a critical component of the global 'infrastructure turn' is deeply embedded in regional socioeconomic contexts. Drawing on advances in actor-oriented network modelling and longitudinal inter-city HSR data in China during 2008-2022, this study explores how the evolution of the HSR network is dynamically and differentially underpinned by attribute-based effects of socioeconomic scale and growth rate to balance the short-term efficiency and long-term equity of nationwide development. After controlling for structure-based effects (transitive triads and balance) as well as attribute-based effects related to geographic, natural and cultural contexts, the results provide evidence that while the scale and the growth rate of economy and population both positively impact HSR link formation, the impacts of scale-related effects significantly diminish over time whereas the impacts of growth-rate-related effects exhibit a significant strengthening trend. The results further illustrate that while the scale-related and growth-rate-related effects of economy function as substitutes in driving HSR link formation, the two corresponding effects of population complement each other, providing evidence for the heterogeneous roles of economic and social contexts in underpinning HSR network planning. The findings provide implications for more effective and equitable regional socioeconomic development through strategic HSR network planning.