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Identifying key parameters and trends in civil violence: a sub-regional, agent-based simulation approach using GIS

Author

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  • J Yates
  • A Ford
  • J Kuglics

Abstract

This work extends a popular agent-based simulation model of civil violence and analyses the effects of these extensions within the test-case region of Iran. First, a macro-level model of civil violence using geographic information science methods and real-world transportation network data is modelled and introduced. A detailed experimental design analyses the sensitivity of the modelled outbreak of civil violence on road network structures. Next, we use individual agent location to develop a personal legitimacy value for each agent of the system and model this legitimacy as a function of agent movement through the region. The resulting models indicate that the occurrence of civil violence in the derived simulations is very sensitive to network composition and connectivity of a given sub-region and identify a small number of behavioural outbreak trends to which sub-regions can be classified. We also show that regional legitimacy can have a marked effect on central authority agent distribution and movement.

Suggested Citation

  • J Yates & A Ford & J Kuglics, 2014. "Identifying key parameters and trends in civil violence: a sub-regional, agent-based simulation approach using GIS," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 179-194, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tjsmxx:v:8:y:2014:i:3:p:179-194
    DOI: 10.1057/jos.2013.26
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