The end of the reading room? Simulating the impact of digitisation on the physical access of archival collections

Digitisation has become an essential part of archival and library strategies to enhance access to collections. As the digital content is increasing due to large-scale digitisation projects, it is expected that providing digital access to the analogue collections will eventually reduce the number of archival records accessed in the reading room. In this paper, we investigate this issue using two approaches: system dynamics and agent-based modelling. We first analyse real data in order to identify the dynamic hypothesis of the model. Then, a sensitivity analysis is conducted on two baseline models to identify scenarios that match the real dataset. Although the two approaches suceed to simulate the number of requests in the reading room, the experimental results show that a better fit is obtained in the agent-based model when not only the number of records that have been accessed and digitised is taken into account, but also the number of times that such records have been accessed before digitisation. The proposed model can be used to explore the impact of different digitisation strategies on the decrease in access requests in the archival and library reading rooms.