Fragment capture simulation for MANPADS test arena optimization

The assessment of aircraft survivability against explosive munitions is an expensive undertaking. Test articles for both aircraft and weapon are scarce due to their high costs, leading to a limited supply of test data. The development of newer, hopefully more effective weaponry and protection measures continues despite the short supply of test articles. Therefore, test organizations need to explore methods for increasing the quality of test results while looking for ways to decrease the associated costs. This research focuses on the Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS) as the weapon of choice and live-fire arena testing as the experimental data source. A proof-of-concept simulation infrastructure is built and used to assess and potentially optimize live-fire test arena configuration to improve missile fragment velocity estimates. Several research questions are explored: measuring potential data quality, comparing arena designs, and improving arena configurations based on fragment pattern predictions.