The influence of government regulations on online public opinion and retailer channel strategies

Recent years have seen frequent emergencies that often disrupt supply–demand equilibrium, exacerbated by irrational consumer demands driven by online public opinion. This paper utilizes a fluctuation model of online public opinion, a susceptible-infectious-recovered model, and system dynamics to investigate these demands across varying social media intensities. Additionally, we examine retailer strategies under scenarios with and without government intervention, including offline and online dual channel strategies. Our results indicate a positive correlation between online public opinion and consumer demand, which increases with greater social media interaction. Although government regulations can moderate public opinion and reduce irrational demands, they often exhibit a temporal lag effect. These regulations are capable of stabilizing prices but might adverse influence retailer profits in some instances. It is essential for governments to judiciously determine the regulation’s timing and intensity to optimize effectiveness while minimizing negative impacts. Meanwhile, retailers adopt varied channel strategies to curtail profit losses; however, success is not uniformly assured. In high social media activity scenarios, retailers favour dual channel strategies, whereas in other conditions, they tend towards offline channels. This study provides actionable insights for improving supply chain disruption management for both governments and enterprises.