Home is where my villa is: a machine learning-based predictive suitability map for Roman features in Northern Noricum (ca. 50–500 CE/Lower Austria/AUT)

This study presents the first suitability map for identifying Roman-era archaeological features in Northern Noricum (modern Lower Austria/AUT) from ca. 50 – 500 CE. It supports archaeological site prediction and assesses the vulnerability of heritage sites to natural hazards, contributing to Cultural Heritage and Resource Management. The 1161 km² area of interest includes the municipium Aelium Cetium (Sankt Pölten) and the forts Arelape (Pöchlarn), Favianis (Mautern an der Donau), and Augustianis (Traismauer), now part of the UNESCO World Heritage site „Danube Limes.“ Based on 1184 features from 551 findspots grouped into 129 sites, a machine learning-based Archaeological Predictive Model was developed using Maximum Entropy (Maxent), integrating environmental and agency-related factors. Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores indicate strong predictive performance (training AUC: 0.809; test AUC: 0.795). This was further supported by a case study confirming Roman rural settlements in high-suitability zones. Comparison with a 2021 flood event additionally demonstrated the model’s potential to assess climate-related risks to archaeological heritage.Graphical representation of the methodology for creating a machine learning-based Suitability Map using Maxent to identify Roman features and assess flood vulnerability in Northern Noricum (modern Lower Austria, Austria). The workflow incorporates predictor variables such as the topographic position index, river proximity, flood zones, major rivers, slope, topographic openness (positive and negative), visibility indices (incoming and outgoing), and aspect, within a defined Area of Interest. Roman features derived from the archaeological site registry are treated as ‘species’ for calculating the habitation model.