A cross-country analysis of household perceptions of environmental change: a natural experiment from the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns profoundly affected healthcare systems and many aspects of social life globally. It also affected several environmental conditions, ranging from air to water pollution and beyond. In some areas, there was deterioration, but in some cases, also improvement, as when less activity and less transport meant less fuel burnt. This paper examines individual perceptions of environmental conditions – indoor and outdoor air quality, drinking water quality, waste disposal, and traffic congestion, compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. We utilise data from YouGov's internet survey of 8,400 randomly selected individuals in seven low – to middle-income countries – Colombia, South Africa, India, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Vietnam. Using descriptive and binary logistic analyses, results show that respondents’ perceptions of environmental conditions differ across countries. The results on factors influencing the perception of change in environmental conditions show that socioeconomic factors such as age, gender, and being economically buoyant shape perceptions. COVID-related variables, such as the number of COVID-related deaths, were also found to influence the perception of change in environmental conditions. The study’s findings highlight the importance of government response to global emergencies and potential disease outbreaks on individual perceptions of changes in environmental conditions.Key Policy HighlightsEnvironmental perceptions worsened unevenly across countries during COVID-19, reflecting differences in policy stringency, infrastructure, and household living conditions rather than uniform environmental change.Economic resilience and access to clean energy helped buffer perceived environmental decline, while reliance on polluting fuels and larger household sizes amplified perceptions of deterioration in air and water quality.Perceptions were shaped by demographic factors and risk exposure, with age, gender, rural residence, and COVID-19 vulnerability influencing reported changes in air quality, water quality, waste, and congestion.