Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change

In July 2023, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate change strategy for the international shipping sector. Critically, this strategy now includes ‘checkpoint’ and ‘strive’ greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040, en route to zero emissions by around 2050. Recent analysis highlights that the IMO’s ‘strive’ targets are essential staging posts and the minimum level of ambition for the sector to play its part in meeting the Paris Climate goals. However, progress towards meeting the IMO’s 2030 and 2040 goals is being stymied by an overly dominant narrative discourse focused on fuels and longer-term (2050) targets: this focus is at odds with the new short-term targets, due to the long lead time for deployment of green fuels at scale, particularly given the slow turn-over of shipping fleets. This article sets out why a change in emphasis towards short-term energy and emission reduction is critical if the sector is to play its part in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It sets out why this is a no-regrets option, complementing necessary ongoing work on alternative fuels. Recommendations for realizing this shift in emphasis include aligning the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) with the IMO’s new ‘strive’ target, shifting the focus of organizational strategies towards reducing cumulative emissions, and rethinking ship design to optimize for ultra-efficiency, wind-assist propulsion and battery power.The logic of cumulative emissions means that near-term emissions reductions are more important for the climate than similar levels of reductions in later years.All shipping stakeholders should reassess their climate strategies against carbon budgets and cumulative emissions profiles, rather than 2050 net-zero goals.There is a fundamental disconnect between the IMO’s new 2030 ‘strive’ target and its unrevised Carbon Intensity Indicator target.The IMO should reform the Carbon Intensity Indicator to align with its 2030 ‘strive’ target and improve enforcement and compliance mechanisms.A far greater focus pre-2030 on behavioural and technological energy efficiency measures is an essential complement to work on longer-term alternative fuel deployment.New vessel designs should focus on ultra-efficient vessels where wind and batteries are an important propulsion source.