Evaluating the CO2 emissions implications of hydrogen energy policies in North China based on a dedicated hydrogen planning model

The role of hydrogen is emphasized in many countries’ energy and climate strategies, yet the impacts of regional hydrogen-supporting policies remain underexplored. This study analyzes recently announced hydrogen-supporting policies across five provinces in northern China. Four scenarios – Current Policy (CP), Announced Policy (AP), Enhanced Policy (EP), and Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) – are developed and assessed using a dedicated hydrogen planning model, MESSAGEix-H2NC. With cumulative demand of end-use applications expanding 1.3 times compared to CP, the AP scenario’s absence of carbon emission constraints leads to a reliance on non-clean hydrogen, resulting in higher carbon emissions than CP. Cost reductions under EP achieve lower emission intensity (11.9 kgCO2/kgH2 by 2030 and 3.6 kgCO2/kgH2 by 2060). Consequently, the investment gap for EP grows from $2.4 billion in 2025 to $89.7 billion in 2060, while the gap for more thorough net-zero emissions (NZE) expands from $10 billion in 2025 to $107 billion in 2060. The investment gap between EP and NZE relative to CP expands over time. Overall, the model results highlight potential deficiencies in current hydrogen development plans and incentive policies in northern China. These findings reveal a misalignment between current policies and CO2 reduction targets and underscore the need for accelerated technological advancements to improve cost competitiveness.Key policy insightsCurrent hydrogen-supporting policies in northern China lack effective coordination with national CO2 emissions reduction goals, hindering clean hydrogen development. Formulating an integrated policy framework and more ambitious emission reduction goals is necessary.Regional variations in renewable and fossil energy resources and development strategies highlight the importance of tailored interventions to promote cleaner technologies across diverse provincial contexts.The annual investment required to achieve green hydrogen dominant and low-carbon transformation goals needs to be at least 1.3 times the current level. By 2060, this gap will widen to nearly 22 times the business-as-usual investment level in the corresponding year.Coordinated policy efforts that integrate carbon emission constraints and support technological advancements can significantly enhance the competitiveness and environmental sustainability of northern China’s hydrogen industry.