Public responses to hard climate policies in OECD member countries: prevalence of contention at the post-adoption stage

Effective climate action is likely to require hard climate policies (e.g. regulation, pricing, phase-outs), but such policies are often contested. Contention can arise not only during policy development and decision making but also at the post-adoption stage where adopted policies may be challenged, threatening policy durability. However, existing research has not systematically analyzed patterns of actual public responses to hard climate policies following their adoption. This is needed to understand response variety and the prevalence of contention. In this paper, we systematically assess public responses in a sample of 50 national-level hard climate policy packages (covering framework and energy policies) across 21 OECD member countries between 2009 and 2022. We categorize public responses (support, acceptance, non-acceptance, backlash) using a typology involving disapproval and mobilization to assess the prevalence of post-adoption contention among mass publics. We draw on newspaper data specific to each case to detect contention. Findings reveal a relatively low prevalence of post-adoption contentious responses to hard climate policies. Nonetheless, contention is pronounced in some cases and is mainly associated with carbon taxation/pricing although not exclusively. The most contentious responses, labeled as backlash, cluster in the latter half of the study period. Findings suggest a need to analyze drivers of contention among mass publics which may be complex and involve factors spanning policy design, institutional politics, and societal context.We observe a low prevalence of public contention over hard climate policy instruments (e.g. regulation, pricing, phase-outs) at the post-adoption stage within OECD countries between 2009 and 2022.Instances of backlash to hard climate policy are relatively rare but can be consequential when they occur. Backlash mostly occurs when policy is seen as too ambitious but can sometimes also occur when policy is seen as not ambitious enough.No clear links are found between various attributes of hard climate policies (i.e. instrument type, gradual introduction, country, timing) and the occurrence of public contention.Politicians and policymakers should not be axiomatically fearful about the lack of public acceptance of hard climate policies.