Identifying opportunities and risks from green hydrogen: a framework and insights from a developing region in Brazil

Green hydrogen is often considered as an opportunity for developing countries to advance their economies while contributing to the global goal of climate change mitigation. Many international cooperation initiatives are being established to promote green hydrogen projects in developing countries. However, the extent to which the benefits would be localized in developing countries remains uncertain. Additionally, the risks of a massive expansion of a green hydrogen industry, including potential trade-offs with other societal goals, have been largely overlooked. To address these gaps, this study proposes an analytical framework to assess the risks, opportunities, synergies and trade-offs from international initiatives, both regarding goals and across geographical scales. The study then applies the framework to an empirical case study of the green hydrogen hub in the Brazilian state of Ceará, where a green corridor is being created with Europe. The analysis is based on triangulation of data collected via in-depth semi-structured interviews, field work, industry reports, as well as official documents and communications. This framework shows that opportunities and risks, including global distributional impacts, will depend on the interplay between technology-, project-, and context-specific factors that span multiple geographical scales. Findings suggest that a global green hydrogen economy could bring negative distributive effects and trade-offs, especially in the short-term. Benefits like decarbonization of end-use sectors and increased industrial output would be primarily mobilized by developed countries who import the green hydrogen and export the technologies, while risks regarding delaying the local energy transition and increased external dependency would be borne by developing countries. Longer-term opportunities related to learning and diversification are both more uncertain and more challenging to realize in places with lower capabilities due to path-dependencies in economic and technological trajectories. Promoting both economic development and sustainability transitions would require local governments to implement strategic policy approaches, international cooperation to build local capabilities and help establish governance mechanisms, and developed country importers of green hydrogen to more systematically address such risks in their own policy making and investment strategies.Green hydrogen production could offer opportunities for both sustainability transitions and economic development, but there are potential risks and trade-offsMany short-term benefits would not materialize locally in developing country producers, but in developed countries that import the green hydrogen and export the technologiesTiming of effects, uncertainty levels, and constraints from path-dependencies influence the distribution of opportunities and risks between countriesWithout adequate governance, green hydrogen exports risk reinforcing unequal global trade and decarbonization patterns and opportunitiesGovernments need to proactively set the conditions for investments in green hydrogen production projects to ensure these contribute to local sustainable development in developing contexts