The potential impacts of an EU-wide agricultural mitigation target on the Irish agriculture sector

The Irish Climate Action Plan published in 2019 outlines the significant role that agriculture will have to take to achieve a national reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland. Recent growth in the agricultural sector, especially of the bovine population, however, has led to a continuous increase of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. For the agricultural sector to meet its potential, greenhouse gas emission targets could be challenging. The agricultural sector model CAPRI is used to investigate the impact of a 20 per cent EU-wide agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation target on the Irish agriculture sector. Three scenarios, allowing the endogenous implementation of mitigation technologies, show the possible impact range of such a policy target. The research indicates that the Irish agriculture sector can achieve the set mitigation target by adapting livestock production systems, resulting in agricultural efficiency gains, and by implementing specific mitigation technologies. Without a mandatory mitigation target but with subsidies granted, changes in the level of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are marginal, and voluntary adoption is limited. Subsidising the implementation of mitigation technologies can buffer the impact that a mitigation target will have on the agriculture sector in Ireland while achieving the set greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Total agricultural income increases if a mandatory target is set due to strong structural changes. As the analysis shows, the emission reduction is partly achieved through a reduction in total production and strong competitors outside of the EU appear to fill the occurring supply gap. This could potentially lead to a carbon leakage effect with production and emissions shifting towards strong ruminant-based producing countries.Mitigation targets in the agricultural sector should be mandatory to achieve a sufficient reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.Subsidy payments targeted towards the implementation of mitigation technologies buffer the economic impact that a mitigation target will have on the productivity of the agriculture sector and enhance the scale of implemented mitigation technologies.Total agricultural income increases if a mandatory target is set due to strong structural changes.Mitigation targets can divert agricultural trade flows and potentially lead to carbon leakage.