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Chasing opportunity: spillovers and drivers of US state population growth

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  • Sebastian Kripfganz
  • Vasilis Sarafidis

Abstract

We examine the drivers and spatial diffusion of US state population growth using a dynamic spatial panel model over the period 1965–2017. Methodologically, the spatial network is recovered from the data rather than imposed a priori, and estimation framework permits heterogeneous slopes and interactive fixed effects. Population growth displays heterogeneous conditional convergence: around three-quarters of states converge, while a small high-growth group diverges mildly. Core drivers such as amenities, labour income and migration frictions are robust across network specifications, whereas productivity effects arise only under data-inferred networks. Spatial spillovers are economically meaningful, accounting for roughly one-third of total effects and extending beyond contiguous neighbours.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Kripfganz & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2026. "Chasing opportunity: spillovers and drivers of US state population growth," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 61-79, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:21:y:2026:i:1:p:61-79
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2026.2624406
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