Impact of grain export on the Russian Empire’s industrial development in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries

This paper investigates the influence of grain export on Russia’s industrial development during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Employing ARDL, NARDL, and VECM models, the authors explored how grain export affected industrial growth, ultimately concluding a long-term negative impact on Russia's industry. The study identifies four channels of influence: consumption, savings, distribution of labour, and investment. Specifically focusing on the investment-related channel, the authors observed a negative long-term impact of grain export on industrial capital. This deduction is rooted in the dominance of small-scale grain exporters during the period, resulting in widely dispersed export profits among intermediaries. Moreover, traders showed a preference for investing outside Russia, contributing to the limited investment within the country's industrial sector.