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Estimating the Inflation Threshold for South Africa

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Abstract

How detrimental is inflation to economic growth in South Africa? At what level? Motivated by the adoption of inflation targeting in many countries, the author of this paper sets out to empirically determine the threshold level of inflation in South Africa. Quarterly time-series data spanning the period 1980:Q2 to 2010:Q3 was adopted for this study. The threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001) was used in this study. The econometric technique that was used is the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which was re-estimated using the two-stage least squares instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) to check for robustness. The results show that the inflation threshold level occurs at 4%. At inflation levels below and up to 4%, there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and growth. The relationship becomes negative and significant when the inflation rate is above 4%. The tests of robustness support these findings.

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  • T L A Leshoro, 2012. "Estimating the Inflation Threshold for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 53-66, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:53-66
    DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2012.12097238
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    1. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Investment: Some Econometric Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 243-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    4. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
    5. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mothuti Gosego & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Witness Nyasha Bandura & Temitope L. A. Leshoro, 2022. "Inflation And Financial Development In Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(233), pages 85-112, April – J.
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Changes in inflation persistence prior and subsequent to the subprime crisis: What are the implications for South Africa?," MPRA Paper 70645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    5. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    6. Jean-Baptiste Nkume, 2014. "Optimal Inflation Threshold for Economic Growth in Malawi," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(12), pages 933-946.
    7. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese, 2019. "Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(2), pages 13-27, April-Jun.
    8. Temitope L A, 2014. "The Effects of Foreign Resource Inflow and Savings on the Economic Growth of South Africa: A VAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(3), pages 232-241.
    9. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bhatta, Siddha Raj, 2015. "Optimal Rate of Inflation in Nepal : An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 96696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Katleho Makatjane & Ntebogang Moroke & Diteboho Xaba, 2017. "Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Causality test between Inflation Rate and Repo Rate," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 163-170.
    12. Leshoro, Temitope L A, 2017. "An empirical analysis of disaggregated government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 22644, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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