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Forward Exchange Rate Puzzle: Joining the Missing Pieces in the Rand-US Dollar Exchange Market

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  • L Bonga-Bonga

Abstract

The Unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) stipulates that the forward rates should be a perfect predictor for the future spot rates. A number of studies conducted in order to test the UFRH and foreign market efficiency, have come to the conclusion that the hypothesis does not hold. This phenomenon is dubbed as the UFRH puzzle. A number of studies that reject the UFRH have made use of ordinary least square methods and support a linear adjustment between spot and forward exchange rates. This paper establishes that the use of a linear model in testing the UFRH can lead to a misspecification problem if indeed there is a nonlinear adjustment between the forward and spot exchange rates. In order to overcome the problem of model misspecification, this paper applies the nonlinear method of the class of the Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model in assessing the relationship between the rand-US dollar future spot and forward exchange rates. With the aid of a series of diagnostic tests, the paper shows that there is indeed a nonlinear adjustment process between the rand-US dollar spot and forward exchange rates and that there exists a regime in the STR model where the UFRH eventually holds.

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  • L Bonga-Bonga, 2009. "Forward Exchange Rate Puzzle: Joining the Missing Pieces in the Rand-US Dollar Exchange Market," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 33-48, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:33-48
    DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2009.12106467
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    3. Dhekra Azouzi & Rohit Vishal Kumar & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 17-44, July.
    4. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
    5. Danglun Luo & Qianwei Ying, 2014. "Political Connections and Bank Lines of Credit," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 5-21, May.
    6. Phungo, Muka & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "An analysis of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 92222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rohit Vishal Kumar & Dhekra Azouzi, 2011. "Tunisian and Indian Forex Markets: A Comparision on Forward Rate Unbiased Hypothesis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(40), pages 81-98, June.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adél Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(1), pages 121-148, April.
    9. Riane de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "Forecasting The Rand-Dollar And Rand-Pound Exchange Rates Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 201307, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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