The rise and fall of economic coalitions in the Belt and Road Initiative: case study of a flagship project in Kenya

China has financed and constructed infrastructure projects in over 100 countries, profoundly impacting host countries’ economic growth and political dynamics. Contrary to the initial warm embrace from host countries, many of these projects face severe pushback and unintended consequences. Why do infrastructure projects elicit diverse responses over their course of development? Applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), this article traces the formation and fragmentation of economic coalitions in the China-financed and -constructed Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway, a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) flagship project. The convergence of Chinese and host country interests contributed to government and community coalition support for project development. Yet these coalitions fluctuate with interest redistribution, creating a contrast between official discourse about infrastructure development and actual development outcomes, thus resulting in wavering subnational support. They add uncertainty to project sustainability and create a dilemma for infrastructure-led development efforts such as the BRI. My detailed documentation of the changing host country stakeholder dynamics offers a nuanced perspective on China’s influence on the Global South’s subnational and community political economy.