Subordinated integration and political waves in the 21st century Latin America

In the 2000s and early 2010s, Brazil, Peru, and Chile experienced leftist electoral victories, reflecting the regional trend known as the Pink Tide. However, in the mid-2010s, the erosion of the popular support for left-wing governments interrupted this process, marking the start of a period of instability. On the one hand, in different countries, conservative forces managed to regain power, renewing the impulse to marketization; on the other hand, left-wing parties kept their electoral strength, obtaining new victories after the late 2010s and even opening the debate about a second left turn in the region. Although these electoral cycles in Brazil, Peru, and Chile reflected domestic political conditions, they cannot be detached from Latin America’s position in the hierarchy of global capitalism. This paper argues that the region’s integration into international trade and global finance has also shaped and subordinated political cycles, introducing varied constraints and opportunities for domestic political actors. We show that during the first left turn, relatively stable inflows from the commodities boom and foreign direct investment allowed governments to implement progressive policies. However, recent left-wing governments have not experienced a similar commodities surge and had to rely more heavily on volatile, short-term financial inflows, posing significant challenges to these countries’ stability and policy space. We argue that the analysis of the trade, financial and political past of Latin American countries should serve them to change their path to avoid being trapped in shrinking waves that curb the space for autonomous development.