Derisking as worldmaking: climate finance and the politics of uncertainty

The derisking state has by now emerged as the key aspirational agent of the energy transition. But what is the concept of risk involved in derisking? This article places debates about derisking within a broader politics of uncertainty by reframing derisking as a peculiar form of financial worldmaking based on a demand for calculability and profitability on the part of private investors. To do so, I build on John Maynard Keynes’s intersubjective theory of probability in which both market actors and states navigate radical uncertainty by shaping conventions and calculative devices that can coordinate expectations. Derisking entails from this perspective not merely a redistribution of risk but rather a more profound transformation of uncertainty into risk, as well as a comprehensive framework for how risk is perceived, articulated, and managed. I then develop on this basis a general account of financial worldmaking which allows me to reframe derisking as a hidden, conservative form of financial worldmaking. Building on this critique the article instead articulates an alternative model of green worldmaking by a Smart Green State that deploys uncertainty by actively shaping expectations and governing experimentally. I conclude by reflecting on the limits of technocratic green worldmaking while stressing the need for tools that can discipline carbon capital.