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A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality

Author

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  • Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher
  • Paola Vázquez-Castillo
  • Trifon I. Missov

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages to forecasting mortality with indicators other than age-specific death rates. The mean, median, and modal ages at death can be directly estimated from the age-at-death distribution, as can information on lifespan variation. The modal age at death has been increasing linearly since the second half of the twentieth century, providing a strong basis from which to extrapolate past trends. The aim of this paper is to develop a forecasting model that is based on the regularity of the modal age at death and that can also account for changes in lifespan variation. We forecast mortality at ages 40 and above in 10 West European countries. The model we introduce increases forecast accuracy compared with other forecasting models and provides consistent trends in life expectancy and lifespan variation at age 40 over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Paola Vázquez-Castillo & Trifon I. Missov, 2025. "A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 79(1), pages 27-43, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:79:y:2025:i:1:p:27-43
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2310835
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