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The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: A reappraisal

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  • Christopher Avery
  • Travis St. Clair
  • Michael Levin
  • Kenneth Hill

Abstract

The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the 'Own Children' method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, 'Own Children' estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the 'Own Children' method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the 'Own Children' method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Avery & Travis St. Clair & Michael Levin & Kenneth Hill, 2013. "The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: A reappraisal," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 171-183, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:171-183
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.769616
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Schoumaker, 2017. "Measuring male fertility rates in developing countries with Demographic and Health Surveys: An assessment of three methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(28), pages 803-850.
    2. Fabian Drixler, 2015. "Conjuring the Ghosts of Missing Children: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Reproductive Restraint in Tokugawa Japan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 667-703, April.
    3. Peter McDonald & Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi & Arash Rashidian, 2015. "An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(58), pages 1581-1602.

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