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Anti-regime action and geopolitical polarization: understanding protester dispositions in Belarus

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  • Olga Onuch
  • Gwendolyn Sasse

Abstract

Do geopolitical orientations distinguish anti-Lukashenka protesters from non-protesters in Belarus? Employing data from an original online protest survey among 18+year-old citizens of Belarus residing in the country (MOBILISE 2020, n= 17,174) fielded 18August2020–29January2021, this paper compares protesters (n = 11,719) to non-protesters (n = 5,455) to better understand the dispositions that distinguish them. First, our logistic regression analysis finds robust evidence of polarization along geopolitical lines (with protesters preferring apro-EU and an anti-Russia orientation). Second, we show that pro-EU foreign policy preferences of protesters are neither temporally determined nor driven by the crisis, and are thus foundational among the positions held by anti-regime protesters. Third, we find that pro-EU and anti-Russia attitudes align with liberal democratic dispositions. Our study calls for the more systematic integration of foreign policy preferences into the comparative study of mobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Onuch & Gwendolyn Sasse, 2022. "Anti-regime action and geopolitical polarization: understanding protester dispositions in Belarus," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1-2), pages 62-87, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpsaxx:v:38:y:2022:i:1-2:p:62-87
    DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2022.2034134
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