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An investigation identifying which key performance indicators influence the chances of promotion to the elite leagues in professional European football

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  • Mikael Jamil
  • Hongyou Liu
  • Ashwin Phatak
  • Daniel Memmert

Abstract

Technical performances of teams competing in the professional second divisions of England, Germany and France were analysed over five seasons in order to determine which factors influence the chances of promotion to the elite leagues. A total of 11,032 team-match observations were analysed via a series of logistical regressions. The results revealed that teams with an overworked defensive unit that were frequently asked to make blocks, clearances and goalkeeper saves would have significantly reduced chances of promotion. Conversely, set-plays and in particular taking advantage of penalty kick opportunities significantly increased the odds of promotion by 37%. In addition, scoring goals from corner kicks were also revealed to significantly enhance the odds of promotion by 35%. With regard to open play, creating chances in the form of assists and through balls were revealed to significantly increase the odds of promotion by 28% and 14%, respectively. These results, therefore, indicate that lower league teams with ambitions of achieving promotion to the elite level should adopt a strategy which consists of frequent penetrative passing that leads to chance creation. Furthermore, teams hoping to achieve promotion should look to improve their efficiency from penalty kicks and corner kick set-plays.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikael Jamil & Hongyou Liu & Ashwin Phatak & Daniel Memmert, 2021. "An investigation identifying which key performance indicators influence the chances of promotion to the elite leagues in professional European football," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 641-650, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:641-650
    DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2021.1933845
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    Cited by:

    1. Kosuke Toda & Masakiyo Teranishi & Keisuke Kushiro & Keisuke Fujii, 2022. "Evaluation of soccer team defense based on prediction models of ball recovery and being attacked: A pilot study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Maurizio Carpita & Paola Pasca & Serena Arima & Enrico Ciavolino, 2023. "Clustering of variables methods and measurement models for soccer players’ performances," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 37-56, June.

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