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Home advantage in football: Examining the effect of scoring first on match outcome in the five major European leagues

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Lago-Peñas
  • Miguel Gómez-Ruano
  • Diego Megías-Navarro
  • Richard Pollard

Abstract

The aim of the current study was to examine the importance of scoring the first goal on the match outcome in football and to determine if this influence depends on the minute in which the first goal is scored. The sample consisted in all the matches played in the season 2014/2015 in the English FA Premier League (n=380), French Ligue 1 (n=380), Spanish La Liga (n=380), Italian Serie A (n=380) and German Bundesliga (n=306). Data were examined using classification tree analysis and a linear regression analysis. The results showed that home teams scored first in 57.8 % of matches and went on the obtain 84.85% of points won in these games. In contrast when the away team scored first, they obtained only 76.25% of subsequent points. These differences were further influenced by the quality of the teams and by the match period in which the first goal was scored. Three independent variables were significant factors on the final outcome: the quality of the opposition (p<0.001), the minute in which the first goal is scored (p<0.01) and the team scoring first (p<0.001). The teams that scored first ended games scoring an average 1.88 goals more than their opponents. Coaches can use this information to establish objectives for players and teams during practices and matches and can be prepared for these different competitive scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Lago-Peñas & Miguel Gómez-Ruano & Diego Megías-Navarro & Richard Pollard, 2016. "Home advantage in football: Examining the effect of scoring first on match outcome in the five major European leagues," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 411-421, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:411-421
    DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2016.11868897
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Sánchez-Murillo & Antonio Antúnez & Daniel Rojas-Valverde & Sergio J. Ibáñez, 2021. "On-Match Impact and Outcomes of Scoring First in Professional European Female Football," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Juan Pablo Morillo-Baro & Rafael E. Reigal & José Antonio Ruíz-López & Juan Antonio Vázquez-Diz & Verónica Morales-Sánchez & Antonio Hernández-Mendo, 2022. "Finalization actions of the finalist teams in the Soccer World Cup 2018: a study with Polar Coordinates," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 779-792, April.
    3. Julen Castellano & Miguel Pic, 2019. "Identification and Preference of Game Styles in LaLiga Associated with Match Outcomes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Rubén D. Aguado-Méndez & José Antonio González-Jurado & Juan Evaristo Callejas-Jerónimo & Fernando Manuel Otero-Saborido, 2021. "Analysis of the goal-scoring opportunities conceded in football: a study case in the Spanish La Liga," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1477-1496, August.
    5. Gomez, Miguel-Angel & Reus, Marc & Parmar, Nimai & Travassos, Bruno, 2020. "Exploring elite soccer teams’ performances during different match-status periods of close matches’ comebacks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Marek Konefał & Paweł Chmura & Kacper Rybka & Jan Chmura & Maciej Huzarski & Marcin Andrzejewski, 2019. "What Frequency of Technical Activity Is Needed to Improve Results? New Approach to Analysis of Match Status in Professional Soccer," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-11, June.
    7. Sarmento, Hugo & Clemente, Filipe Manuel & Gonçalves, Eder & Harper, Liam D & Dias, Diogo & Figueiredo, António, 2020. "Analysis of the offensive process of AS Monaco professional soccer team: A mixed-method approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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