Forced migration, uncertainty and transnationalism of Ukrainians in Germany

Currently, the situation of Ukrainians in Germany and generally the EU is determined by a transitory environment of a Russia’s war against Ukraine with an uncertain outcome, a temporary migration status with an uncertain prospect and an integration process of uncertain results all on the backdrop of often transnational individual strategies. Uncertainty is at the core of all these parameters. This paper investigates how Ukrainian forced migrants in Germany deal with the stress of uncertainty and specifically the complex process of migration decision-making. Drawing on findings from a qualitative study of Ukrainian forced migrants in Germany I focus on the uncertainties they experience in political, economic, social and linguistic domains. The paper identifies multiple drivers at play such as the duration of the war, prospects of post-war reconstruction, the well-being of family members, the integration process, the future perspectives of the children. Furthermore, I explore whether transnational strategies can be understood as a response to these uncertainties. The choice is not necessarily a simple one between returning or staying, but a combination of both worlds - the Ukrainian and the new world in Germany - which means establishing a transnational pattern of mobility and living under conditions of uncertainty.