Influences of COVID-19 pandemic on travel patterns across past, present, and future

As societies strive to return to pre-COVID-19 norms, there's growing recognition of the profound changes people have experienced over the past two and a half years. This has prompted discussions on how to shape future transportation strategies to align with evolving lifestyles. Understanding people's travel patterns before, during, and after the pandemic is crucial for shaping post-pandemic actions. This study investigates the relationship between travel patterns across these phases, with a focus on the pandemic's mediating effects. Using structural equation modelling and data from 7,613 U.S. survey responses, we uncover noteworthy shifts in travel behaviour dynamics. During the pandemic, policy measures and sociodemographic factors significantly influenced travel. However, these effects may diminish as measures are lifted and vulnerabilities no longer correlate with sociodemographics. In contrast, past travel behaviour and attitudes, especially favouring alternative modes of transportation, are expected to have a more enduring impact in the post-pandemic era. This shift is likely to emerge ‘strengthened new normal,’ especially among those who reduced travel and embraced alternative modes. Future travel policies should anticipate and accommodate these evolving dynamics. Promoting diverse transportation modes beyond private vehicles will be crucial as travel behaviour undergoes transformation. Thus, policy formulation should consider a range of scenarios to address these changing preferences and behaviours.