Author
Listed:
- Dan Wu
- Jaeyoung Lee
- Ye Li
Abstract
Although historical crash data and trajectory data have been widely applied to crash and risk predictions, both types of data have their own limitations. As a solution, this study investigates the impact of the traffic flow parameters and their interaction terms on risk prediction performance, employing a variable pre-screening approach (i.e. Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD)). A research framework is proposed for more efficient risk prediction, and a detailed case study is further conducted using the proposed approach. In the case study, real vehicle trajectory data from HighD are processed and used, which can be aggregated to extract both traffic flow parameters and corresponding risk data during a specific time interval. As for the risk detection, Time-to-Collision (TTC) index is utilized to identify risky conditions. For different lanes (i.e. inner, middle and outer lanes), the impact of variables, including interaction terms, on risk is explored using the SCAD-logistic models. Furthermore, machine learning methods are employed to compare the risk prediction performance before and after considering interaction terms, as well as before and after variable pre-screening. Finally, the superiority of the machine learning models after SCAD-based variable pre-screening is demonstrated. Results indicate that the interaction terms between traffic flow parameters have significant impacts on the traffic risk. Besides, considering interaction terms and variable pre-screening can improve risk prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the proposed models outperform Random Forest (RF) in terms of predicting traffic risk, achieving a maximum 21.24% accuracy improvement and reducing computational time by up to 31.51%. Findings of this study are expected to contribute to the high-precision prediction of real-time risk in the future.
Suggested Citation
Dan Wu & Jaeyoung Lee & Ye Li, 2025.
"A trajectory data-driven approach for traffic risk prediction: incorporating variable interactions and pre-screening,"
International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 333-361, April.
Handle:
RePEc:taf:rjusxx:v:29:y:2025:i:2:p:333-361
DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2024.2346166
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjusxx:v:29:y:2025:i:2:p:333-361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjus20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.