The immigrant effect on commuting modal shares: variation and consistency across metropolitan zones

The literature has identified an “immigrant effect” in commuting modal shares, accounting for higher reliance on public transit. Few studies have, however, studied the immigrant effect at the intra-metropolitan scale. This paper relies on individual- and census tract-level data to identify relations between immigrant modal shares and housing location within three metropolitan concentric zones (inner city, inner and outer suburb) and selected socioeconomic variables. Findings from the Toronto metropolitan area confirm the existence of an immigrant effect, as immigrants register higher levels of transit use than the domestically born population in all categories of residential location across the metropolitan region. The paper reflects on reasons for, and sustainability consequences of, disproportional immigrant transit reliance in sectors, such as the outer suburb, that are poorly served by transit. It suggests a demand-driven transit strategy that would involve adjusting services to the higher transit reliance of immigrants.