Incumbent disadvantage in a swing province: Eastern Province in Zambia’s 2021 general election

Might incumbency entail disadvantages as well as advantages? This article examines the performance of incumbent president Edgar Lungu and the Patriotic Front (PF) in Zambia's Eastern Province in the 2021 election. Eastern Province was a ‘swing’ region in that neither of the two major national political parties had deep-rooted support, despite Lungu's and the PF's strong performance in 2015-16. Survey data shows that voters punished the incumbent government in 2021 for its poor management of the economy (and, to a lesser extent, corruption). Interviews with provincial politicians and documentary sources reveal the challenges facing the incumbent in maintaining the coalition that had brought it electoral success in 2015-16. The case of Eastern Province illustrates how, in such swing regions, incumbency can be a disadvantage as well as an advantage, as the incumbent president is held responsible for the state of the economy and the opportunities to local elites. In countries where national electoral success requires winning decisively in such swing regions, even incumbent presidents and parties face a significant possibility of electoral defeat.