Motivations for Mexican-US Migration: Does the Economy Matter?

This research examines Mexican immigrants’ motivations for crossing into the US to evaluate whether macroeconomic conditions affect these motivations. Using a data set of 44,017 Mexican migrants from 2010 through September 2016 and controlling for personal factors, results indicate economic motivations are moderated by US macroeconomic conditions and in the expected way, i.e. the US unemployment rate (growth rate) is inversely (directly) associated with economic motivations to cross into the US and positively associated with non-economic (familial-based) motivations. Results also suggest that Mexican migrants coming to the US in the wake of the Great Recession (i.e. in 2010 and 2011) were much less likely to cross for economic reasons than those crossing in 2015 and 2016, while those crossing in 2013 and 2014 were more likely to cross for economic reasons. We suspect nationalistic rhetoric amplified by Trump’s campaign for US president may have crowded out economic motivations as immigrants expected the proposed anti-immigrant policies to reduce the availability of US economic opportunities. Similar support for macroeconomic “push” effects from the Mexican economy were not found. Additionally, economic and familial-based motivations for migrating appear to be substitutes and both respond to US macroeconomic conditions though in opposite ways.