Cultivating agricultural sustainability: the role of the Belt and Road initiative in boosting green agricultural productivity

This study investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) in participating countries. The empirical results show that BRI participation is associated with a significant improvement in AGTFP, underscoring the initiative’s potential to promote sustainable agricultural transformation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced in countries with higher income levels, stronger technological capacity and better institutional quality, suggesting that domestic absorptive capacity plays a critical role in shaping policy effectiveness. To explore the underlying mechanisms, the study examines two potential channels: resource-saving ability and sustainable practice capability. The findings highlight the importance of aligning international infrastructure initiatives with local development conditions and institutional capacity. This study contributes to the growing literature on green development and provides new evidence on how large-scale international cooperation can advance environmental and productivity objectives in agriculture.