IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v30y2025i4p1470-1485.html

Estimating the natural rate of interest for the emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Hirofumi Suzuki

Abstract

This paper evaluates the natural rate of interest (NRI) for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, [Taipei, China], and Thailand and aggregates them using a GDP-weighted average. This paper discusses four key points. Firstly, to estimate the NRI in emerging Asian economies, this paper introduces a Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model that integrates exchange rates alongside conventional growth and inflation variables. Secondly, the results show that NRIs in the emerging Asia have been declining in trend since the 1990s. Thirdly, the behavior of the NRI for each economy is not uniform across crises—the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourthly, the findings reveal that the ascertained Asian NRI decreased to the vicinity of 0% during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirofumi Suzuki, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest for the emerging Asia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 1470-1485, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:30:y:2025:i:4:p:1470-1485
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2024.2378529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2024.2378529
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860.2024.2378529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:30:y:2025:i:4:p:1470-1485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.