Value-added tax expansion reform and specialization in China: evidence from textual analysis

This paper investigates the impact of China’s value-added tax (VAT) expansion reform on specialization using data sourced from listed companies. Through an examination of changes in business scope and revenue, two significant findings emerge. First, certain companies extend their services beyond internal use, aiming to boost sales during the post-reform period. This expansion is evident in the changes observed in the business scope matrix. Second, certain service providers experience a significant revenue increase as they attract outsourced orders from manufacturers affected by the reform. The disaggregated analysis of the three sectors involved in the VAT expansion reform further substantiates these findings. Moreover, we rule out tax avoidance as a motive by evaluating actual changes in tax burden, as opposed to projected burdens. These findings have important policy implications for understanding the ramifications of VAT reform and the dynamics of specialization within the industry.