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Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

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  • Sebastien Bourdin
  • Ludovic Jeanne
  • Fabien Nadou
  • Gabriel Noiret

Abstract

The spread of Covid-19 is a global concern, especially in the most developed countries where the rapid spread of the virus has taken governments by surprise. Adopting a spatial approach to this issue, we identify the spatial factors that help explain why some areas are hit harder than others, based on the Italian example (with the Lombardy region as the epicentre in Europe). Our analysis combines an autoregressive spatial model and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation from a pool of data collected from the Italian provinces to propose a real-time analysis of the spread and concentration of the virus. The findings suggest that the most globally connected areas are also the worst hit, and that the implementation of a lockdown at the beginning of March 2020 was a crucial and effective approach to slowing the spread of the virus further.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastien Bourdin & Ludovic Jeanne & Fabien Nadou & Gabriel Noiret, 2021. "Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(7), pages 1182-1193, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:55:y:2021:i:7:p:1182-1193
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2021.1887471
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavlov, Konstantin & Timiryanova, Venera & Yusupov, Kasim & Krasnoselskaya, Dina, 2022. "Анализ волн распространения Covid-19 в России [Analysis of Covid-19 wave distribution in Russia]," MPRA Paper 114637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chiara Burlina & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2024. "Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 263-284, February.
    3. Adah-Kole Emmanuel Onjewu & Sundas Hussain & Mohamed Yacine Haddoud, 2022. "The Interplay of E-commerce, Resilience and Exports in the Context of COVID-19," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1209-1221, August.
    4. Max Nathan, 2023. "Critical Commentary: The city and the virus," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(8), pages 1346-1364, June.
    5. José Antonio Belso-Martínez & Alicia Mas-Tur & Mariola Sánchez & María José López-Sánchez, 2020. "The COVID-19 response system and collective social service provision. Strategic network dimensions and proximity considerations," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 14(3), pages 387-411, September.
    6. Venera Tomaselli & Massimo Mucciardi, 2021. "Mobility and mortality in covid-19 epidemic: a spatial analysis," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(2), pages 39-49, April-Jun.
    7. Eduardo A. Haddad & Renato S. Vieira & Inácio F. Araújo & Silvio M. Ichihara & Fernando S. Perobelli & Karina S. S. Bugarin, 2022. "COVID-19 crisis monitor: assessing the effectiveness of exit strategies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(2), pages 501-525, April.
    8. Sebastien Bourdin & Sevgi Eda Tuzcu & Esra Satıcı, 2023. "Explaining COVID‐19 vaccine uptake: A spatial sociodemographic study in Turkey," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 307-329, April.
    9. Andrea Barigazzi & Giovanni Gallo, 2023. "How Pandemic Shock Affects Claim for Minimum Income Measures," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0185, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Woraphon Yamaka & Siritaya Lomwanawong & Darin Magel & Paravee Maneejuk, 2022. "Analysis of the Lockdown Effects on the Economy, Environment, and COVID-19 Spread: Lesson Learnt from a Global Pandemic in 2020," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-21, October.
    11. Xieer Dai & Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein & David Genesove & Nikita Kotsenko, 2023. "'Traffic light' theory for Covid-19 spatial mitigation policy design," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    12. Bogdan-Constantin Ibanescu & Mioara Cristea & Alexandra Gheorghiu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu, 2023. "The regional evolution of job insecurity during the first COVID-19 wave in relation to the pandemic intensity," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Mounir Amdaoud & Giuseppe Arcuri & Nadine Levratto, 2021. "Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(4), pages 629-642, June.
    14. Zhaohui Su & Ali Cheshmehzangi & Dean McDonnell & Junaid Ahmad & Sabina Šegalo & Yu-Tao Xiang & Claudimar Pereira da Veiga, 2022. "The Advantages of the Zero-COVID-19 Strategy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-13, July.
    15. Luis Orea & Inmaculada C. Álvarez, 2022. "How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID‐19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 154-173, January.
    16. Mounir Amdaoud & Giuseppe Arcuri & Nadine Levratto & Marianna Succurro & Damiana Costanzo, 2020. "Geography of COVID-19 outbreak and first policy answers in European regions and cities [Géographie de la Covid-19 et réponses politique des régions et villes européennes]," Working Papers halshs-03046489, HAL.
    17. Peter Nijkamp & Karima Kourtit, 2022. "Place-Specific Corona Dashboards for Health Policy: Design and Application of a ‘Dutchboard’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Nava, Consuelo R. & Osti, Linda & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "Forecasting Domestic Tourism across Regional Destinations through MIDAS Regressions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202207, University of Turin.
    19. Sébastien Bourdin, 2022. "The Challenges of Cohesion Policy in a postpandemic Europe: Towards greater territorial cohesion? [Les défis de la Politique de Cohésion dans une Europe post-pandémique : vers une plus grande cohés," Post-Print hal-04190368, HAL.
    20. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    21. Yun Cheng & Sha Fang & Jie Yin, 2022. "The effects of community safety support on COVID‐19 event strength perception, risk perception, and health tourism intention: The moderating role of risk communication," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 496-509, March.

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