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The Spatial-Cycle Model (SCM) Revisited

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  • John B. Parr

Abstract

Parr J. B. The spatial-cycle model (SCM) revisited, Regional Studies . The spatial-cycle model is concerned with a series of stages (based on population changes) through which a given area is expected to pass. Two versions of this model are explored: the more common ‘standard version’ and a proposed ‘alternative version’. Taking a single-area perspective, consideration is given to the extent to which the sequence of stages within the spatial-cycle model is consistent with observed outcomes. The model is then examined from a system-wide perspective. It is concluded that although the spatial-cycle model is found wanting in a number of important respects, its apparent outright rejection does not seem warranted. Parr J. B. 空间循环模型再考察,区域研究。 空间循环模型主要关注给定地区所需经历的一系列阶段(基于人口变化)。本研究考 察了上述模型的两个版本:一为较普通的标准模型,另一个是替代模型。研究首先通 过单区域视角考查了空间循环模型的理论阶段顺序在多大程度上与观察结果保持一致 。研究随即从系统视角再对模型进行了考察。研究总结到,在很多重要方面空间循环 模型皆是有效的,没有必要明确地拒绝其使用。 空间循环模型 (SCM) 中心化 去中心化 总体人口变化 Parr J. B. Le modèle géographico-cyclique vu sous un jour nouveau, Regional Studies . Le modèle géographico-cyclique traite d'une série d'étapes (à partir de l'évolution de la population) par lesquelles une zone bien délimitée est censée traverser. On examine deux versions de ce modèle: la ‘version type’ plus courante et une ‘version alternative’ proposée. Sous l'optique d'une zone unique, on considère dans quelle mesure la série d'étapes au sein du modèle géographico-cyclique correspond aux résultats observés. Dans un deuxième temps, on examine le modèle à l'échelle des systèmes. On conclut que le rejet catégorique du modèle géographico-cyclique ne semble pas justifié, bien qu'il fasse défaut à bien des égards. Modèle géographico-cyclique Centralisation Décentralisation Évolution globale de la population Parr J. B. Überprüfung des Raumzyklusmodells, Regional Studies . Das Raumzyklusmodell umfasst eine Reihe von (auf demografischen Veränderungen beruhenden) Phasen, die ein bestimmtes Gebiet normalerweise durchläuft. Von diesem Modell werden zwei Versionen untersucht: die gängigere ‘Standardversion' und eine vorgeschlagene ‘alternative Version'. Ausgehend von einer Perspektive mit einer einzelnen Gegend wird erörtert, inwiefern der Ablauf der Phasen innerhalb des Raumzyklusmodells mit den beobachteten Ergebnissen übereinstimmt. Anschließend wird das Modell aus einer systemweiten Perspektive untersucht. Es wird der Schluss gezogen, dass das Raumzyklusmodell zwar in mehreren wichtigen Aspekten Mängel aufweist, aber für seine offenbar gänzliche Ablehnung kein Anlass vorliegt. Raumzyklusmodell Zentralisierung Dezentralisierung Ge nerelle demografische Veränderungen Parr J. B. Revisión del modelo de ciclo espacial, Regional Studies . El modelo de ciclo espacial abarca una serie de fases (basados en los cambios de población) por la que suele pasar una determinada área. Aquí analizamos dos versiones de este modelo: la ‘versión estándar’ más común y una ‘versión alternativa’ propuesta. Desde una perspectiva de una única área, consideramos en qué medida la secuencia de la fase en el modelo de ciclo espacial es coherente con los resultados observados. A continuación, examinamos el modelo desde una perspectiva en todo el sistema. Concluimos que aunque el modelo de ciclo espacial muestra deficiencias en muchos aspectos importantes, su aparente rechazo total no parece tener justificación. Modelo de ciclo espacial Centralización Descentralización C ambio general de la población

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Parr, 2012. "The Spatial-Cycle Model (SCM) Revisited," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 217-228, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:217-228
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2011.558895
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