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A Future for Europe? Results with a Regional Prediction Model

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  • Jesus Mur

Abstract

MUR J. (1996) A future for Europe? Results with a regional prediction model, Reg. Studies 30, 549-565. The purpose of this paper is to build up a location econometric model for the European regions, using two basic concepts: the existence of an equilibrium relationship between sector and region; and a dynamic adjustment process that corrects previous location disorders. This model has been specified and estimated in a context of limited statistical information. The final part of the paper contains the predictions obtained from its simulation in the period 1990-95. The main conclusion we can extract from this exercise is that it is likely that the process of regional convergence across Europe will continue. MUR J. (1996) Quel avenir pour l'Europe? Les resultats d'un modele previsionnel regional, Reg. Studies 30, 549-565. Cet article cherche a construire un modele econometrique de localisation pour les regions de l'Europe a partir de deux notions fondamentales: l'existence d'un rapport d'equilibre entre les secteur et la region, et un processus d'ajustement qui corrige les desordres de localisation anterieurs. Ce modele a ete precise et estime utilisant une base de donnees limitee. La derniere partie de l'article comprend les previsions qui proviennent d'une simulation sur la periode de 1990 a 1995. La conclusion principale que l'on peut en tirer est la suivante: il est probable que le processus de convergence regionale a travers l'Europe va persister. MUR J. (1996) Eine Zukunft fur Europa? Ergebnisse eines Regionalvorhersagemodell, Reg. Studies 30, 549-565. Es ist die Absicht dieses Aufsatzes, ein okonometrisches Standortmodell fur die europaischen Regionen zu erstellen, das auf zwei Grundkonzepten beruht: dem Vorhandensein einer ausgewogenen Beziehung zwischen Sektor und Region, und einem dynamischen Anpassungsprozess, der fruhere Standortunstimmigkeiten korrigiert. Dieses Modell ist im Zusam-menhang mit begrenzten statistischen Daten berechnet und spezifiziert worden. Abschliessend werden Vorhersagen gemacht, die auf einer Simulation im Zeitraum 1990-1995 beruhen. Die Hauptschlussfolgerung, die man dieser ubung entnehmen kann, ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Prozess der regionalen Konvergenz in Europa anhalten wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Mur, 1996. "A Future for Europe? Results with a Regional Prediction Model," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 549-565.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:30:y:1996:i:6:p:549-565
    DOI: 10.1080/00343409612331349858
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paelinck, J., 1978. "Spatial econometrics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-63.
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