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Time-heterogeneous impacts of global temperature cycle on world business cycle

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  • Kyungsik Nam

Abstract

We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a time-varying structural VAR analysis to identify the time-heterogeneous relationship between the extracted latent factors. Our findings provide empirical evidence that the global mean temperature cycle has a negative impact on the world business cycle during super El Niño periods, which are characterized by relatively high temperature variance records given the past information.

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  • Kyungsik Nam, 2024. "Time-heterogeneous impacts of global temperature cycle on world business cycle," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 2428737-242, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:27:y:2024:i:1:p:2428737
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2024.2428737
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