Future-proofing nature-based tourism in Canada: a horizon scan of emerging challenges

Global climate change, biodiversity loss, health crises, and economic instability converge to form a polycrisis that challenges the sustainable planning, management, and operations of parks, protected, and conserved areas (PPCAs) for biodiversity conservation and nature-based tourism (NBT). Utilising a horizon scan methodology for the first time in the tourism field, this paper engaged experts across Canada to identify and critically examine the opportunities and risks associated with emerging challenges anticipated to affect sustainable NBT in PPCAs over the next three decades. Using a modified Delphi technique in three phases, beginning with challenge identification followed by two rounds of scoring to prioritise and rank challenges based on impact and likelihood, eight key challenge themes were identified: (1) demographic change, (2) climate change risk and adaptation, (3) low carbon transition, (4) workforce sustainability, (5) sustainable financing, (6) equitable and effective governance, (7) balancing conservation with visitation, and (8) truth and reconciliation. These insights are critical for practitioners, policymakers, and tourism stakeholders to adapt planning and management efforts, addressing interconnected challenges and stimulating research to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the NBT sector in Canada amid the polycrisis.