U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition

The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China’s huge manufacturing output. From China’s point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.