Trade or trap? The impact of EU trade policies on South Africa's agri-food exports

This paper investigates the potential negative impact of the European Union's (EU) agri-food import practices on the competitiveness of South Africa's agricultural sector by applying the Constant Market Share (CMS) model to a 20-year dataset in the context of trade liberalisation and the slowdown in global value chain activity on agri-food trade. This study is the first to utilise the CMS model over an extended period to assess the competitiveness of South African agri-food exports to the EU. We categorise agri-food products into bulk commodities, processed intermediate goods, horticultural products, and consumer-ready goods. While South African agri-food exports responded to changes in EU market demand, they were concentrated in slower-growing markets and commodities with below-average growth rates. Although competitive in certain niches, South African agri-food exports were generally not competitive over the long term. The decline in the EU's agri-food imports from South Africa, despite trade agreements, suggests a persistent negative trend without strategic intervention. We recommend that South Africa focus on exporting high-demand commodities to rapidly growing EU markets and invest in priority areas to enhance competitiveness.