Spatiotemporal Variation of COVID-19 and Its Spread in South America: A Rapid Assessment

The novel COVID-19 disease has affected people in more than 180 countries, accounting for more than 1 million deaths globally to date. This study intends to explore a rapid spatial and temporal assessment of the COVID-19 disease in South America. Data were gathered from the World Health Organization and analyzed using spatial mapping and statistical software. Models were developed based on the established linear relationship between attributable COVID-19-related deaths and confirmed cases. The study adopted both discrete and continuous panel regression models and spatial lag models for the analysis. Statistical analysis validated the linear relationships noticed in COVID-19 modeling. South America saw a rapid rise in cases and deaths within a relatively short period particularly affecting the countries with larger populations. Spatial models showed a positive relationship between population density and confirmed cases and a negative relationship between per capita gross domestic product and attributable deaths. Confirmed cases are likely to spread with more populated countries but, interestingly, increasing wealth can possibly lead to a fall in deaths for South America. This suggests the country’s capacity to invest in the resources necessary to combat the pandemic and shows insight into the potential situation of less developed countries as the pandemic continues.