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Assessing investors’ earnings expectations: the contextual usefulness of composite forecasts

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  • May H. Lo
  • Wenjuan Xie
  • Le (Emily) Xu

Abstract

This study constructs composite forecasts and evaluates their contextual usefulness as a proxy for investors’ expectations of annual earnings. Our empirical tests utilize composites of three forecast sources: financial analysts’, time-series and security-price based forecasts. Our full sample results support the incremental usefulness of composite forecasts, over and above that of any of the three forecast sources. Moreover, results from partitioned subsamples show that the usefulness of composite forecasts is contextual. Composite forecasts are a better proxy for investors’ earnings expectations when (1) the information environment is relatively poor; or (2) firms experience negative performance in the prior year.

Suggested Citation

  • May H. Lo & Wenjuan Xie & Le (Emily) Xu, 2019. "Assessing investors’ earnings expectations: the contextual usefulness of composite forecasts," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 223-240, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:raaexx:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:223-240
    DOI: 10.1080/16081625.2018.1491316
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