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Detection of false investment strategies using unsupervised learning methods

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  • Marcos López de Prado
  • Michael J. Lewis

Abstract

In this paper we address the problem of selection bias under multiple testing in the context of investment strategies. We introduce an unsupervised learning algorithm that determines the number of effectively uncorrelated trials carried out in the context of a discovery. This estimate is critical for computing the familywise false positive probability, and for filtering out false investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos López de Prado & Michael J. Lewis, 2019. "Detection of false investment strategies using unsupervised learning methods," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1555-1565, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:19:y:2019:i:9:p:1555-1565
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2019.1622311
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Paskaramoorthy & Terence van Zyl & Tim Gebbie, 2020. "A Framework for Online Investment Algorithms," Papers 2003.13360, arXiv.org.
    2. Gang Huang & Xiaohua Zhou & Qingyang Song, 2020. "Deep reinforcement learning for portfolio management," Papers 2012.13773, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    3. Joel da Costa & Tim Gebbie, 2020. "Learning low-frequency temporal patterns for quantitative trading," Papers 2008.09481, arXiv.org.
    4. Jiří Witzany, 2021. "A Bayesian Approach to Measurement of Backtest Overfitting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Benjamin R. Auer, 2022. "On false discoveries of standard t-tests in investment management applications," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 751-768, April.

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