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Portfolio performance of linear SDF models: an out-of-sample assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Erwin Hansen
  • Martín Lozano-Banda

Abstract

We evaluate linear stochastic discount factor models using an ex-post portfolio metric: the realized out-of-sample Sharpe ratio of mean–variance portfolios backed by alternative linear factor models. Using a sample of monthly US portfolio returns spanning the period 1968–2016, we find evidence that multifactor linear models have better empirical properties than the CAPM, not only when the cross-section of expected returns is evaluated in-sample, but also when they are used to inform one-month ahead portfolio selection. When we compare portfolios associated to multifactor models with mean–variance decisions implied by the single-factor CAPM, we document statistically significant differences in Sharpe ratios of up to 10 percent. Linear multifactor models that provide the best in-sample fit also yield the highest realized Sharpe ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin & Erwin Hansen & Martín Lozano-Banda, 2018. "Portfolio performance of linear SDF models: an out-of-sample assessment," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 1425-1436, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:8:p:1425-1436
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1429646
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabri Boubaker & Tu D. Q. Le & Riadh Manita & Thanh Ngo, 2025. "The trade-off frontier for ESG and Sharpe ratio: a bootstrapped double-frontier data envelopment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 347(1), pages 717-741, April.
    2. Hansen, Erwin, 2022. "Economic evaluation of asset pricing models under predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 50-66.
    3. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2024. "Factor models for Chinese A-shares," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2024. "Machine-learning stock market volatility: Predictability, drivers, and economic value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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