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Market timing ability and mutual funds: a heterogeneous agent approach

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  • Bart Frijns
  • Aaron Gilbert
  • Remco C.J. Zwinkels

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to determine whether mutual funds time the market. The proposed approach builds on a heterogeneous agent model, where investors switch between cash and stocks depending on a certain switching rule. This approach is more flexible, intuitive, and parsimonious than the traditional convexity approach. Applying this model to a sample of 400 US equity mutual funds, we find that 41.5% of the funds in our sample have negative market timing skills and only 3.25% positive skills. Twenty percent of funds apply a forward-looking approach in deciding on market timing, and 13.75% a backward-looking approach. We find that growth funds tend to be more backward-looking and income funds tend to be more forward-looking.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Frijns & Aaron Gilbert & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Market timing ability and mutual funds: a heterogeneous agent approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 1613-1620, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:13:y:2013:i:10:p:1613-1620
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2013.791749
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Venessa S. Tchamyou & Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2018. "Effects of asymmetric information on market timing in the mutual fund industry," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(5), pages 542-557, May.
    2. Blake LeBaron, 2021. "Microconsistency in Simple Empirical Agent-Based Financial Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 83-101, June.
    3. Ruzita Abdul Rahim & Ling Pick Soon & Rasidah Mohd Rashid, 2019. "Performance of Local Versus International Focus Malaysian-based Mutual Funds," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(2), pages 53-75.
    4. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    5. Petros Messis & Antonis Alexandridis & Achilleas Zapranis, 2021. "Testing and comparing conditional risk‐return relationship with a new approach in the cross‐sectional framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 218-240, January.
    6. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
    7. Pankaj K. Agarwal & H. K. Pradhan, 2018. "Mutual Fund Performance Using Unconditional Multifactor Models: Evidence from India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 157-184, August.

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