How has Russia’s fiscal policy changed over the past decade?

The aim of this paper is to clarify changes in Russia’s fiscal policy over the past decade, with particular attention to the evolution of fiscal space under wartime conditions. The Russian government introduced “new fiscal rules” in 2013 and 2018. This paper examines changes in four key components of these rules: the base oil price; the ceiling on total expenditures in the initial budget; amendments to the Federal Budget Law; and transfers to and withdrawals from the National Wealth Fund (NWF). The findings can be summarized in three points. First, the introduction of the 2018 fiscal rule strengthened fiscal discipline. Second, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, repeated deviations from the fiscal rule weakened fiscal discipline. Third, in 2025, there are signs of a return to the 2018 rule. For example, the expenditure ceiling in the initial budget was observed for the first time in 2025, and funds equivalent to excess oil and gas revenues in 2024 were transferred to the NWF. These developments suggest a tightening of fiscal space, constraining the scope for sustained deviations from the fiscal rule.