IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oxdevs/v53y2025i3p263-285.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shrinking pie in times of conflict: evidence from India’s Jammu and Kashmir

Author

Listed:
  • Vikash Vaibhav
  • Akhilesh K. Verma

Abstract

This paper analyses the economic repercussions of persistent terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and explores the role of credit supply as a transmission channel between terrorism and economic activity. First, we estimate the direct economic cost of terrorism by constructing a ‘synthetic’ counterfactual of J&K. Our findings indicate that, in the absence of terrorism, J&K’s economy would have been more than one and a half times its current size. This translates to a depressed annual growth of 2.4% of over a quarter-century and a starker loss of 3.7% in per capita terms. Second, we show that terrorism contracts credit supply leading to reduced economic activity captured by night lights data. We further estimate the implications of terrorism on sectoral credit allocation and regional heterogeneity – personal credit and agricultural credit contracted more than industrial credit and the Kashmir region suffered a greater impact of terrorism than the Jammu region.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikash Vaibhav & Akhilesh K. Verma, 2025. "Shrinking pie in times of conflict: evidence from India’s Jammu and Kashmir," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 263-285, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:53:y:2025:i:3:p:263-285
    DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2025.2507259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13600818.2025.2507259
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13600818.2025.2507259?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:53:y:2025:i:3:p:263-285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CODS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.