Shaking up globalization: the international political economy of Thailand’s export-oriented industrialization and the rise of China

This paper examines how China’s rise has shaken up the export patterns of Thailand, one of the middle-income countries that has experienced the middle-income trap. We separate exports based on five tiers of technologies: primary products (PP), resource-based manufactures (RB), low-technology products (LT), medium-technology products (MT), and high-technology products (HT). Using constant market share analysis (CMA), threat analysis (TA), and displacement analysis (DA), we show that China has become dominant at all technological levels, especially the HT, in the US, Japanese, Southeast Asia, and world markets. Our results suggest that China has already reshaped the global division of labor, and the rise of Chinese exports comes at the expense of Thai exports. Although Thailand’s export shares have still increased for the LT and MT, the country has constantly lost shares in HT in most markets. We therefore question whether middle-income countries can still utilize export-led industrialization to become HT exporters in the future.